禽流感危机下肉鸡产业市场状态分析*——基于互联网大数据和MS-VAR模型

[目的]为了有效应对禽流感冲击、维持肉鸡产业稳定健康发展。[方法]基于互联网大数据构建了禽流感舆情指数,选取2012年1月至2017年3月周度数据,通过MS-VAR模型分析了禽流感危机下肉鸡市场状态的转换特征以及不同市场状态下产业链价格传导关系。[结果]2012年以来可将肉鸡产业市场状态划分为危机状态和正常状态,肉鸡产业市场在两个市场状态下转换频繁;肉鸡产业危机市场状态和正常市场状态平均持续期分别为4.65周和9.05周;肉鸡市场在区制转移概率上存在明显的非对称特征;肉雏鸡、活鸡和白条鸡价格之间在危机状态下相关性小于正常市场状态下相关性;不同市场状态下肉鸡产业链价格传导存在差异;肉鸡产业市场在危机状态下不稳定程度明显增加。[结论]提出了加大对禽流感疫情的监测以及疫情处理能力,密切关注公众禽流感舆情动态变动情况,做好舆情引导,加强禽流感疫情科学知识的宣传,增强公众对禽流感的认知等对策建议。     

Interventions in Markets with Adverse Selection: Implications for Discount Window Stigma

I study the implications for central bank discount window stigma of a workhorse model of adverse selection in financial markets. In the model, firms (banks) need to borrow to finance a productive project. There is limited liability and firms have private information about their ability to repay their debts, which gives rise to the possibility of adverse selection. The central bank can ameliorate the impact of adverse selection by lending to firms. Discount window borrowing is observable and it may be taken as a signal of firms' credit worthiness. Under some conditions, firms borrowing from the discount window may pay higher interest rates to borrow in the market, a phenomenon often associated with the presence of stigma. I discuss these and other outcomes in detail and what they suggest about the relevance of stigma as an empirical phenomenon.     

Internal labour markets in the Australian banking industry: their nature prior to the Second World War and their recent decline

This paper uses evidence from late nineteenth-and early twentieth-century personnel records of two Australian banks to examine the nature of internal labour markets prior to the Second World War. It is argued that the industry possessed all the classic features of internal labour markets: limited ports of entry, internal promotion, long careers, and assignment of wages by well-defined rules. The paper then examines the reasons why banks adopted internal labour markets. Finally, the paper examines the recent decline of internal labour markets and examines the role of technological and social changes in this decline.     

网上证券交易的国际比较和借鉴

网上证券交易是全球证券经纪业务发展的一大趋势，而我国在这方面尚处于初步发展阶段，文章主要阐述借鉴其他国家在网上证券交易的相关做法，结合我国现状提出对发展我国网上证券业务的建议。     

论互联网互动增值业务中虚拟财产的法律保护

“虚拟财产”是互联网互动增值业务系统的重要部分。虚拟财产保护不足会妨碍互联网互动增值业务的发展。我国法律相关规定的空白和理论认识的不统一造成司法实践的混乱。这种状况破坏了法律体系的统一性和确定性，也不能有力保护“虚拟财产”。有必要加强“虚拟财产”法律问题的研究，推动有关法律文件的出台。     

欧盟成员国银行业政策主要特点分析

本文认为欧盟《第二银行指令》全面推动了欧盟各成员国银行业规制协调,可将成员国近20年以来的银行业政策主要特点归纳为四个方面,即全面放松管制、私有化、鼓励银行并购和对外扩张,金融监管体制一体化。这些政策促进了各成员国银行业竞争和快速发展,提高了欧盟银行业效率和盈利,有助于降低消费者和企业的融资成本,提高欧盟银行业整体抗风险能力。     

刍议虚拟财产的法律保护

随着网络,尤其是网络游戏的迅猛发展,虚拟财产的交易及其保护引发了是否要对其加以保护,如何进行保护,如何进行规范等一系列问题,在我国的司法实践中已经不得不开始面对这类纠纷的裁判,而在法律上有关虚拟财产的规则尚处于不确定的空白,给这类纠纷的解决带来了很大的障碍,基于此,进行虚拟财产特性、交易等等相关法律问题的研究,并在探讨其合法性的前提下,进一步论证虚拟财产的法律保护规则的建构具有十分重要的理论意义与现实意义。     

The Workout of Banking Crises: A Macroeconomic Perspective

This paper provides a macroeconomic perspective for governmentinterventions in banking crisis. Such crisis occur when a largenumber of banks fail to meet capital requirements or are insolvent.Using a macroeconomic model with financial intermediation, ouranalyis suggests that strict enforcement of capital-adequaterules suffices in prosperous periods. Capital requirements serveas an indicator for crises interventions in critical stateswhich may require interest rate intervention and restructuringof the banking industry. These policies can be reinforced byrandom bailouts and temporary financial relief, with a largepercentage of the costs being covered by current and futureowners of banks. (JEL D41, E4, G2)     

试论货币政策与银行监管的协调运行

货币政策和银行监管是我国中央银行的两项重要职能 ,货币政策与银行监管两者的关系是既相互独立 ,又相互联系 ,但是在现实中主要表现出独立性而甚少表现出协调性 ,因此 ,中央银行有必要加强货币政策与银行监管的协调配合。     

分布式通信流分析系统的实现

文章介绍了通信流分析以及匿名通信的研究现状,并分析了现在研究通信流分析所采用的几种流分析工具,指出他们对于匿名通信的通信流分析的不足之处,最后,提出了适应于匿名通信的分布式通信流分析系统的实现方法。